Friday, October 30, 2015

Unified Stealth and Surprise, Revisited


A year ago, I folded the sometimes confuddling methods by which stealth and surprise are achieved into a single table. Amongst other things, it showed that the chances of one's novice thief sneaking up on a target isn't as woefully ridiculous as assumed from looking at their Move Silently/Hide in Shadows chances.

John at the Wandering Gamist noted I could add the monsters who grant a -2/-3 penalty to surprise on my Unified Stealth/Surprise tables.

I also thought to add the chances using Difficult To Spot in both brush and dungeon; that's more-or-less Hide In Shadows. Percentages are calculated as if Move Silently always fails.

I'm going to do four new tables, assuming I haven't corked up my spreadsheet coming back to it after a full 12 months.

First, the main tables with that added, target without alertness:

Attentive Target
Inattentive Target
Concealment
No Concealment
Hide Successful
Hide Failure
Move Silently Successful
Move Silently Failure
Move Silently Successful
Move Silently Failure
Hear Noise Failure
Hear Noise Success
Hear Noise Failure
Hear Noise Success
Surprise FailureSurprise FailureSurprise FailureSurprise Failure
Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!
Anyone---33.33%33.33%-85.00%5.00%
-1 OppSrp---50.00%50.00%-85.00%7.50%
-2 OppSrp---66.66%66.66%-85.00%10.00%
-3 OppSrp---83.33%83.33%-85.00%12.50%
DtS:Brush-76.50%4.50%3.33%33.33%-85.00%5.00%
DtS:Dungeon-29.75%1.75%21.66%33.33%-85.00%5.00%
Thief 12.00%6.80%0.40%30.00%33.33%20.00%68.00%4.00%
Thief 23.75%9.56%0.56%28.33%33.33%25.00%63.75%3.75%
Thief 36.00%11.90%0.70%26.66%33.33%30.00%59.50%3.50%
Thief 48.75%13.81%0.81%25.00%33.33%35.00%55.25%3.25%
Thief 512.00%15.30%0.90%23.33%33.33%40.00%51.00%3.00%
Thief 615.75%16.36%0.96%21.66%33.33%45.00%46.75%2.75%
Thief 724.75%17.21%1.01%18.33%33.33%55.00%38.25%2.25%
Thief 835.75%16.36%0.96%15.00%33.33%65.00%29.75%1.75%
Thief 948.75%13.81%0.81%11.67%33.33%75.00%21.25%1.25%
Thief 1063.75%9.56%0.56%8.33%33.33%85.00%12.75%0.75%
Thief 1180.75%3.61%0.21%5.00%33.33%95.00%4.25%0.25%
Thief 1285.50%3.83%0.22%3.33%33.33%95.00%4.25%0.25%
Thief 1395.00%0.00%0.00%1.67%33.33%100.00%0.00%0.00%
Thief 14100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%100.00%0.00%0.00%


So there's that - I think just giant chameleons and shadows effect a -3 penalty to surprise, where at -2 there's bugbears and tigers and troglodytes and such. -1 is barbarians and some other things.

As a combined table:

Target Without AlertnessTarget Has Alertness
Attentive TargetInattentive TargetAttentive TargetInattentive Target
ConcealmentNo ConcealmentConcealmentNo Concealment
Anyone33.33%33.33%90.00%33.33%33.33%76.67%
-1 to Opp. Surp.50.00%50.00%92.50%33.33%33.33%76.67%
-2 to Opp. Surp.66.66%66.66%95.00%66.66%66.66%88.33%
-3 to Opp. Surp.83.33%83.33%97.50%83.33%83.33%94.17%
DtS:Brush84.33%33.33%90.00%72.33%33.33%76.67%
DtS:Dungeon53.16%33.33%90.00%48.50%33.33%76.67%
Thief 139.20%33.33%92.00%38.13%33.33%81.33%
Thief 242.21%33.33%92.50%40.71%33.33%82.50%
Thief 345.26%33.33%93.00%43.40%33.33%83.67%
Thief 448.37%33.33%93.50%46.21%33.33%84.83%
Thief 551.53%33.33%94.00%49.13%33.33%86.00%
Thief 654.74%33.33%94.50%52.17%33.33%87.17%
Thief 761.31%33.33%95.50%58.61%33.33%89.50%
Thief 868.07%33.33%96.50%65.51%33.33%91.83%
Thief 975.04%33.33%97.50%72.87%33.33%94.17%
Thief 1082.21%33.33%98.50%80.71%33.33%96.50%
Thief 1189.57%33.33%99.50%89.01%33.33%98.83%
Thief 1292.88%33.33%99.50%92.28%33.33%98.83%
Thief 1396.67%33.33%100.00%96.67%33.33%100.00%
Thief 14100.00%33.33%100.00%100.00%33.33%100.00%

Combined table, victim has a +1 to surprise:

Target Without AlertnessTarget Has Alertness
Attentive TargetInattentive TargetAttentive TargetInattentive Target
ConcealmentNo ConcealmentConcealmentNo Concealment
Anyone16.66%16.66%87.50%16.66%16.66%70.83%
-1 to Opp. Surp.33.33%33.33%90.00%33.33%33.33%76.67%
-2 to Opp. Surp.50.00%50.00%92.50%50.00%50.00%82.50%
-3 to Opp. Surp.66.66%66.66%95.00%66.66%66.66%88.33%
DtS:Brush80.42%16.66%87.50%65.41%16.66%70.83%
DtS:Dungeon41.45%16.66%87.50%35.62%16.66%70.83%
Thief 123.99%16.66%90.00%22.66%16.66%76.66%
Thief 227.75%16.66%90.62%25.88%16.66%78.12%
Thief 331.58%16.66%91.25%29.24%16.66%79.58%
Thief 435.46%16.66%91.87%32.76%16.66%81.04%
Thief 539.41%16.66%92.50%36.41%16.66%82.50%
Thief 643.42%16.66%93.12%40.21%16.66%83.96%
Thief 751.63%16.66%94.37%48.26%16.66%86.87%
Thief 860.09%16.66%95.62%56.88%16.66%89.79%
Thief 968.80%16.66%96.87%66.09%16.66%92.71%
Thief 1077.76%16.66%98.12%75.88%16.66%95.62%
Thief 1186.97%16.66%99.37%86.26%16.66%98.54%
Thief 1291.10%16.66%99.37%90.35%16.66%98.54%
Thief 1395.83%16.66%100.00%95.83%16.66%100.00%
Thief 14100.00%16.66%100.00%100.00%16.66%100.00%

Combined table, victim has a +2 to surprise:
Attentive Target
Inattentive Target
Concealment
No Concealment
Hide Successful
Hide Failure
Move Silently Successful
Move Silently Failure
Move Silently Successful
Move Silently Failure
Hear Noise Failure
Hear Noise Success
Hear Noise Failure
Hear Noise Success
Surprise FailureSurprise FailureSurprise FailureSurprise Failure
Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!Surprise!
Anyone---0.00%0.00%-85.00%0.00%
-1 OppSrp---16.67%16.67%-85.00%2.50%
-2 OppSrp---33.33%33.33%-85.00%5.00%
-3 OppSrp---50.00%50.00%-85.00%7.50%
DtS:Brush-76.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%-85.00%0.00%
DtS:Dungeon-29.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%-85.00%0.00%
Thief 12.00%6.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%20.00%68.00%0.00%
Thief 23.75%9.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%63.75%0.00%
Thief 36.00%11.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%30.00%59.50%0.00%
Thief 48.75%13.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%35.00%55.25%0.00%
Thief 512.00%15.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%40.00%51.00%0.00%
Thief 615.75%16.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.00%46.75%0.00%
Thief 724.75%17.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%55.00%38.25%0.00%
Thief 835.75%16.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%65.00%29.75%0.00%
Thief 948.75%13.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%75.00%21.25%0.00%
Thief 1063.75%9.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%85.00%12.75%0.00%
Thief 1180.75%3.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%95.00%4.25%0.00%
Thief 1285.50%3.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%95.00%4.25%0.00%
Thief 1395.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%
Thief 14100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%
Nothing truly revolutionary there, but, for completion's sake. Against an opponent with a bonus to their surprise roll, the best strategy, obviously, is to disallow them the roll.

Again - what the thief is is a manager of surprise, as the class has the ability to cancel out Hear Noise, which generates a surprise roll. 

I still think there's a way to fold up Hear Noise, Surprise, Move Silently, Hide in Shadows, and at least Find Traps into some master "Global Surprise" mechanic. I've touched on it one or two times, and the aforementioned Wandering Gamist did so as well.

Gonna let that sit and simmer. Right now I'm thinking about ACKS dungeonology.





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