A year ago, I folded the sometimes confuddling methods by which stealth and surprise are achieved into a single table. Amongst other things, it showed that the chances of one's novice thief sneaking up on a target isn't as woefully ridiculous as assumed from looking at their Move Silently/Hide in Shadows chances.
John at the Wandering Gamist noted I could add the monsters who grant a -2/-3 penalty to surprise on my Unified Stealth/Surprise tables.
I also thought to add the chances using Difficult To Spot in both brush and dungeon; that's more-or-less Hide In Shadows. Percentages are calculated as if Move Silently always fails.
I'm going to do four new tables, assuming I haven't corked up my spreadsheet coming back to it after a full 12 months.
First, the main tables with that added, target without alertness:
| Attentive Target |
Inattentive Target
| |||||||
| Concealment |
No Concealment
| |||||||
| Hide Successful |
Hide Failure
| |||||||
Move Silently Successful
| Move Silently Failure |
Move Silently Successful
| Move Silently Failure | |||||
Hear Noise Failure
| Hear Noise Success |
Hear Noise Failure
| Hear Noise Success | |||||
| Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | |||||
| Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | |
| Anyone | - | - | - | 33.33% | 33.33% | - | 85.00% | 5.00% |
| -1 OppSrp | - | - | - | 50.00% | 50.00% | - | 85.00% | 7.50% |
| -2 OppSrp | - | - | - | 66.66% | 66.66% | - | 85.00% | 10.00% |
| -3 OppSrp | - | - | - | 83.33% | 83.33% | - | 85.00% | 12.50% |
| DtS:Brush | - | 76.50% | 4.50% | 3.33% | 33.33% | - | 85.00% | 5.00% |
| DtS:Dungeon | - | 29.75% | 1.75% | 21.66% | 33.33% | - | 85.00% | 5.00% |
| Thief 1 | 2.00% | 6.80% | 0.40% | 30.00% | 33.33% | 20.00% | 68.00% | 4.00% |
| Thief 2 | 3.75% | 9.56% | 0.56% | 28.33% | 33.33% | 25.00% | 63.75% | 3.75% |
| Thief 3 | 6.00% | 11.90% | 0.70% | 26.66% | 33.33% | 30.00% | 59.50% | 3.50% |
| Thief 4 | 8.75% | 13.81% | 0.81% | 25.00% | 33.33% | 35.00% | 55.25% | 3.25% |
| Thief 5 | 12.00% | 15.30% | 0.90% | 23.33% | 33.33% | 40.00% | 51.00% | 3.00% |
| Thief 6 | 15.75% | 16.36% | 0.96% | 21.66% | 33.33% | 45.00% | 46.75% | 2.75% |
| Thief 7 | 24.75% | 17.21% | 1.01% | 18.33% | 33.33% | 55.00% | 38.25% | 2.25% |
| Thief 8 | 35.75% | 16.36% | 0.96% | 15.00% | 33.33% | 65.00% | 29.75% | 1.75% |
| Thief 9 | 48.75% | 13.81% | 0.81% | 11.67% | 33.33% | 75.00% | 21.25% | 1.25% |
| Thief 10 | 63.75% | 9.56% | 0.56% | 8.33% | 33.33% | 85.00% | 12.75% | 0.75% |
| Thief 11 | 80.75% | 3.61% | 0.21% | 5.00% | 33.33% | 95.00% | 4.25% | 0.25% |
| Thief 12 | 85.50% | 3.83% | 0.22% | 3.33% | 33.33% | 95.00% | 4.25% | 0.25% |
| Thief 13 | 95.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.67% | 33.33% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Thief 14 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
So there's that - I think just giant chameleons and shadows effect a -3 penalty to surprise, where at -2 there's bugbears and tigers and troglodytes and such. -1 is barbarians and some other things.
As a combined table:
| Target Without Alertness | Target Has Alertness | |||||
| Attentive Target | Inattentive Target | Attentive Target | Inattentive Target | |||
| Concealment | No Concealment | Concealment | No Concealment | |||
| Anyone | 33.33% | 33.33% | 90.00% | 33.33% | 33.33% | 76.67% |
| -1 to Opp. Surp. | 50.00% | 50.00% | 92.50% | 33.33% | 33.33% | 76.67% |
| -2 to Opp. Surp. | 66.66% | 66.66% | 95.00% | 66.66% | 66.66% | 88.33% |
| -3 to Opp. Surp. | 83.33% | 83.33% | 97.50% | 83.33% | 83.33% | 94.17% |
| DtS:Brush | 84.33% | 33.33% | 90.00% | 72.33% | 33.33% | 76.67% |
| DtS:Dungeon | 53.16% | 33.33% | 90.00% | 48.50% | 33.33% | 76.67% |
| Thief 1 | 39.20% | 33.33% | 92.00% | 38.13% | 33.33% | 81.33% |
| Thief 2 | 42.21% | 33.33% | 92.50% | 40.71% | 33.33% | 82.50% |
| Thief 3 | 45.26% | 33.33% | 93.00% | 43.40% | 33.33% | 83.67% |
| Thief 4 | 48.37% | 33.33% | 93.50% | 46.21% | 33.33% | 84.83% |
| Thief 5 | 51.53% | 33.33% | 94.00% | 49.13% | 33.33% | 86.00% |
| Thief 6 | 54.74% | 33.33% | 94.50% | 52.17% | 33.33% | 87.17% |
| Thief 7 | 61.31% | 33.33% | 95.50% | 58.61% | 33.33% | 89.50% |
| Thief 8 | 68.07% | 33.33% | 96.50% | 65.51% | 33.33% | 91.83% |
| Thief 9 | 75.04% | 33.33% | 97.50% | 72.87% | 33.33% | 94.17% |
| Thief 10 | 82.21% | 33.33% | 98.50% | 80.71% | 33.33% | 96.50% |
| Thief 11 | 89.57% | 33.33% | 99.50% | 89.01% | 33.33% | 98.83% |
| Thief 12 | 92.88% | 33.33% | 99.50% | 92.28% | 33.33% | 98.83% |
| Thief 13 | 96.67% | 33.33% | 100.00% | 96.67% | 33.33% | 100.00% |
| Thief 14 | 100.00% | 33.33% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 33.33% | 100.00% |
Combined table, victim has a +1 to surprise:
| Target Without Alertness | Target Has Alertness | |||||
| Attentive Target | Inattentive Target | Attentive Target | Inattentive Target | |||
| Concealment | No Concealment | Concealment | No Concealment | |||
| Anyone | 16.66% | 16.66% | 87.50% | 16.66% | 16.66% | 70.83% |
| -1 to Opp. Surp. | 33.33% | 33.33% | 90.00% | 33.33% | 33.33% | 76.67% |
| -2 to Opp. Surp. | 50.00% | 50.00% | 92.50% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 82.50% |
| -3 to Opp. Surp. | 66.66% | 66.66% | 95.00% | 66.66% | 66.66% | 88.33% |
| DtS:Brush | 80.42% | 16.66% | 87.50% | 65.41% | 16.66% | 70.83% |
| DtS:Dungeon | 41.45% | 16.66% | 87.50% | 35.62% | 16.66% | 70.83% |
| Thief 1 | 23.99% | 16.66% | 90.00% | 22.66% | 16.66% | 76.66% |
| Thief 2 | 27.75% | 16.66% | 90.62% | 25.88% | 16.66% | 78.12% |
| Thief 3 | 31.58% | 16.66% | 91.25% | 29.24% | 16.66% | 79.58% |
| Thief 4 | 35.46% | 16.66% | 91.87% | 32.76% | 16.66% | 81.04% |
| Thief 5 | 39.41% | 16.66% | 92.50% | 36.41% | 16.66% | 82.50% |
| Thief 6 | 43.42% | 16.66% | 93.12% | 40.21% | 16.66% | 83.96% |
| Thief 7 | 51.63% | 16.66% | 94.37% | 48.26% | 16.66% | 86.87% |
| Thief 8 | 60.09% | 16.66% | 95.62% | 56.88% | 16.66% | 89.79% |
| Thief 9 | 68.80% | 16.66% | 96.87% | 66.09% | 16.66% | 92.71% |
| Thief 10 | 77.76% | 16.66% | 98.12% | 75.88% | 16.66% | 95.62% |
| Thief 11 | 86.97% | 16.66% | 99.37% | 86.26% | 16.66% | 98.54% |
| Thief 12 | 91.10% | 16.66% | 99.37% | 90.35% | 16.66% | 98.54% |
| Thief 13 | 95.83% | 16.66% | 100.00% | 95.83% | 16.66% | 100.00% |
| Thief 14 | 100.00% | 16.66% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 16.66% | 100.00% |
Combined table, victim has a +2 to surprise:
| Attentive Target |
Inattentive Target
| |||||||
| Concealment |
No Concealment
| |||||||
| Hide Successful |
Hide Failure
| |||||||
Move Silently Successful
| Move Silently Failure |
Move Silently Successful
| Move Silently Failure | |||||
Hear Noise Failure
| Hear Noise Success |
Hear Noise Failure
| Hear Noise Success | |||||
| Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | Surprise Failure | |||||
| Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | Surprise! | |
| Anyone | - | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | - | 85.00% | 0.00% |
| -1 OppSrp | - | - | - | 16.67% | 16.67% | - | 85.00% | 2.50% |
| -2 OppSrp | - | - | - | 33.33% | 33.33% | - | 85.00% | 5.00% |
| -3 OppSrp | - | - | - | 50.00% | 50.00% | - | 85.00% | 7.50% |
| DtS:Brush | - | 76.50% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - | 85.00% | 0.00% |
| DtS:Dungeon | - | 29.75% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - | 85.00% | 0.00% |
| Thief 1 | 2.00% | 6.80% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 68.00% | 0.00% |
| Thief 2 | 3.75% | 9.56% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.00% | 63.75% | 0.00% |
| Thief 3 | 6.00% | 11.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.00% | 59.50% | 0.00% |
| Thief 4 | 8.75% | 13.81% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.00% | 55.25% | 0.00% |
| Thief 5 | 12.00% | 15.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 51.00% | 0.00% |
| Thief 6 | 15.75% | 16.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 45.00% | 46.75% | 0.00% |
| Thief 7 | 24.75% | 17.21% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 55.00% | 38.25% | 0.00% |
| Thief 8 | 35.75% | 16.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 65.00% | 29.75% | 0.00% |
| Thief 9 | 48.75% | 13.81% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 75.00% | 21.25% | 0.00% |
| Thief 10 | 63.75% | 9.56% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 85.00% | 12.75% | 0.00% |
| Thief 11 | 80.75% | 3.61% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 95.00% | 4.25% | 0.00% |
| Thief 12 | 85.50% | 3.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 95.00% | 4.25% | 0.00% |
| Thief 13 | 95.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Thief 14 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Nothing truly revolutionary there, but, for completion's sake. Against an opponent with a bonus to their surprise roll, the best strategy, obviously, is to disallow them the roll.
Again - what the thief is is a manager of surprise, as the class has the ability to cancel out Hear Noise, which generates a surprise roll.
I still think there's a way to fold up Hear Noise, Surprise, Move Silently, Hide in Shadows, and at least Find Traps into some master "Global Surprise" mechanic. I've touched on it one or two times, and the aforementioned Wandering Gamist did so as well.
Gonna let that sit and simmer. Right now I'm thinking about ACKS dungeonology.
