ACKS Blackmarsh (3), Map of Civilization

In a continuing series!

Last map, I think, and I subject you to another futzing around with a "style", something I do not have a lot of.

Previously, we'd settled out...the settled lands in Blackmarsh. Rather than huddle everyone up in the same highly concentrated hexes, I took a stab at spreading folk out a bit. And I didn't really check to see if there were any highly dangerous lairs where I put folk, so those people may be dead already.

So, Hex 1212, for example, following Dwimmermount's example, would have somewhere around (2d3*10)+590 families - the hexes with three people icons.

Two icons would represent (2d6*10)+205, and one icon is a borderlands hex at (2d4*10)+95 families. I chose poorly ending my average population numbers in "5"s.

Split hexes would have ~325 families of one vassalage, and ~325 families of the other.

If you ask about that in the halfling hex of 0510, split betwixt the Greenton and Strangeholm halflings,  you will waste 2d3 turns as whichever halfling you've asked the question of gives you a very very long story about his genealogy and exactly which great-great-great third cousin's on the paternal side once did someone a solid and that's why his family is part of the Greenton rather than those Strangeholms, not that they are not perfectly upstanding members of the community but they put a bit too much spice in their porridge if you know what I mean and I don't think you do, so let's talk about proper spice application in porridge, pies, and other very exciting foods and oh look a the time, it's elevensies, and you must come stop by as we've just harvested the pumpkins and there are quite a bit of pies to eat and travelers such as you must be famished having missed second breakfast as you folk tend to do, these are properly spiced with just a touch of cinnamon, not like the Strangeholms do it - have I ever told you about my great-great-great third cousin, on the paternal side?

Unified Stealth and Surprise, Revisited

A year ago, I folded the sometimes confuddling methods by which stealth and surprise are achieved into a single table. Amongst other things, it showed that the chances of one's novice thief sneaking up on a target isn't as woefully ridiculous as assumed from looking at their Move Silently/Hide in Shadows chances.

John at the Wandering Gamist noted I could add the monsters who grant a -2/-3 penalty to surprise on my Unified Stealth/Surprise tables.

I also thought to add the chances using Difficult To Spot in both brush and dungeon; that's more-or-less Hide In Shadows. Percentages are calculated as if Move Silently always fails.

I'm going to do four new tables, assuming I haven't corked up my spreadsheet coming back to it after a full 12 months.

First, the main tables with that added, target without alertness:

	Attentive Target					Inattentive Target
	Concealment				No Concealment
	Hide Successful			Hide Failure
	Move Silently Successful	Move Silently Failure				Move Silently Successful	Move Silently Failure
		Hear Noise Failure	Hear Noise Success				Hear Noise Failure	Hear Noise Success
			Surprise Failure	Surprise Failure	Surprise Failure			Surprise Failure
	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!
Anyone	-	-	-	33.33%	33.33%	-	85.00%	5.00%
-1 OppSrp	-	-	-	50.00%	50.00%	-	85.00%	7.50%
-2 OppSrp	-	-	-	66.66%	66.66%	-	85.00%	10.00%
-3 OppSrp	-	-	-	83.33%	83.33%	-	85.00%	12.50%
DtS:Brush	-	76.50%	4.50%	3.33%	33.33%	-	85.00%	5.00%
DtS:Dungeon	-	29.75%	1.75%	21.66%	33.33%	-	85.00%	5.00%
Thief 1	2.00%	6.80%	0.40%	30.00%	33.33%	20.00%	68.00%	4.00%
Thief 2	3.75%	9.56%	0.56%	28.33%	33.33%	25.00%	63.75%	3.75%
Thief 3	6.00%	11.90%	0.70%	26.66%	33.33%	30.00%	59.50%	3.50%
Thief 4	8.75%	13.81%	0.81%	25.00%	33.33%	35.00%	55.25%	3.25%
Thief 5	12.00%	15.30%	0.90%	23.33%	33.33%	40.00%	51.00%	3.00%
Thief 6	15.75%	16.36%	0.96%	21.66%	33.33%	45.00%	46.75%	2.75%
Thief 7	24.75%	17.21%	1.01%	18.33%	33.33%	55.00%	38.25%	2.25%
Thief 8	35.75%	16.36%	0.96%	15.00%	33.33%	65.00%	29.75%	1.75%
Thief 9	48.75%	13.81%	0.81%	11.67%	33.33%	75.00%	21.25%	1.25%
Thief 10	63.75%	9.56%	0.56%	8.33%	33.33%	85.00%	12.75%	0.75%
Thief 11	80.75%	3.61%	0.21%	5.00%	33.33%	95.00%	4.25%	0.25%
Thief 12	85.50%	3.83%	0.22%	3.33%	33.33%	95.00%	4.25%	0.25%
Thief 13	95.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.67%	33.33%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Thief 14	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	33.33%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%

So there's that - I think just giant chameleons and shadows effect a -3 penalty to surprise, where at -2 there's bugbears and tigers and troglodytes and such. -1 is barbarians and some other things.

As a combined table:

	Target Without Alertness			Target Has Alertness
	Attentive Target		Inattentive Target	Attentive Target		Inattentive Target
	Concealment	No Concealment		Concealment	No Concealment
Anyone	33.33%	33.33%	90.00%	33.33%	33.33%	76.67%
-1 to Opp. Surp.	50.00%	50.00%	92.50%	33.33%	33.33%	76.67%
-2 to Opp. Surp.	66.66%	66.66%	95.00%	66.66%	66.66%	88.33%
-3 to Opp. Surp.	83.33%	83.33%	97.50%	83.33%	83.33%	94.17%
DtS:Brush	84.33%	33.33%	90.00%	72.33%	33.33%	76.67%
DtS:Dungeon	53.16%	33.33%	90.00%	48.50%	33.33%	76.67%
Thief 1	39.20%	33.33%	92.00%	38.13%	33.33%	81.33%
Thief 2	42.21%	33.33%	92.50%	40.71%	33.33%	82.50%
Thief 3	45.26%	33.33%	93.00%	43.40%	33.33%	83.67%
Thief 4	48.37%	33.33%	93.50%	46.21%	33.33%	84.83%
Thief 5	51.53%	33.33%	94.00%	49.13%	33.33%	86.00%
Thief 6	54.74%	33.33%	94.50%	52.17%	33.33%	87.17%
Thief 7	61.31%	33.33%	95.50%	58.61%	33.33%	89.50%
Thief 8	68.07%	33.33%	96.50%	65.51%	33.33%	91.83%
Thief 9	75.04%	33.33%	97.50%	72.87%	33.33%	94.17%
Thief 10	82.21%	33.33%	98.50%	80.71%	33.33%	96.50%
Thief 11	89.57%	33.33%	99.50%	89.01%	33.33%	98.83%
Thief 12	92.88%	33.33%	99.50%	92.28%	33.33%	98.83%
Thief 13	96.67%	33.33%	100.00%	96.67%	33.33%	100.00%
Thief 14	100.00%	33.33%	100.00%	100.00%	33.33%	100.00%

Combined table, victim has a +1 to surprise:

	Target Without Alertness			Target Has Alertness
	Attentive Target		Inattentive Target	Attentive Target		Inattentive Target
	Concealment	No Concealment		Concealment	No Concealment
Anyone	16.66%	16.66%	87.50%	16.66%	16.66%	70.83%
-1 to Opp. Surp.	33.33%	33.33%	90.00%	33.33%	33.33%	76.67%
-2 to Opp. Surp.	50.00%	50.00%	92.50%	50.00%	50.00%	82.50%
-3 to Opp. Surp.	66.66%	66.66%	95.00%	66.66%	66.66%	88.33%
DtS:Brush	80.42%	16.66%	87.50%	65.41%	16.66%	70.83%
DtS:Dungeon	41.45%	16.66%	87.50%	35.62%	16.66%	70.83%
Thief 1	23.99%	16.66%	90.00%	22.66%	16.66%	76.66%
Thief 2	27.75%	16.66%	90.62%	25.88%	16.66%	78.12%
Thief 3	31.58%	16.66%	91.25%	29.24%	16.66%	79.58%
Thief 4	35.46%	16.66%	91.87%	32.76%	16.66%	81.04%
Thief 5	39.41%	16.66%	92.50%	36.41%	16.66%	82.50%
Thief 6	43.42%	16.66%	93.12%	40.21%	16.66%	83.96%
Thief 7	51.63%	16.66%	94.37%	48.26%	16.66%	86.87%
Thief 8	60.09%	16.66%	95.62%	56.88%	16.66%	89.79%
Thief 9	68.80%	16.66%	96.87%	66.09%	16.66%	92.71%
Thief 10	77.76%	16.66%	98.12%	75.88%	16.66%	95.62%
Thief 11	86.97%	16.66%	99.37%	86.26%	16.66%	98.54%
Thief 12	91.10%	16.66%	99.37%	90.35%	16.66%	98.54%
Thief 13	95.83%	16.66%	100.00%	95.83%	16.66%	100.00%
Thief 14	100.00%	16.66%	100.00%	100.00%	16.66%	100.00%

Combined table, victim has a +2 to surprise:

	Attentive Target					Inattentive Target
	Concealment				No Concealment
	Hide Successful			Hide Failure
	Move Silently Successful	Move Silently Failure				Move Silently Successful	Move Silently Failure
		Hear Noise Failure	Hear Noise Success				Hear Noise Failure	Hear Noise Success
			Surprise Failure	Surprise Failure	Surprise Failure			Surprise Failure
	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!	Surprise!
Anyone	-	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-	85.00%	0.00%
-1 OppSrp	-	-	-	16.67%	16.67%	-	85.00%	2.50%
-2 OppSrp	-	-	-	33.33%	33.33%	-	85.00%	5.00%
-3 OppSrp	-	-	-	50.00%	50.00%	-	85.00%	7.50%
DtS:Brush	-	76.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-	85.00%	0.00%
DtS:Dungeon	-	29.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-	85.00%	0.00%
Thief 1	2.00%	6.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	20.00%	68.00%	0.00%
Thief 2	3.75%	9.56%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%	63.75%	0.00%
Thief 3	6.00%	11.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	30.00%	59.50%	0.00%
Thief 4	8.75%	13.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	35.00%	55.25%	0.00%
Thief 5	12.00%	15.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	40.00%	51.00%	0.00%
Thief 6	15.75%	16.36%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	45.00%	46.75%	0.00%
Thief 7	24.75%	17.21%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	55.00%	38.25%	0.00%
Thief 8	35.75%	16.36%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	65.00%	29.75%	0.00%
Thief 9	48.75%	13.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	75.00%	21.25%	0.00%
Thief 10	63.75%	9.56%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	85.00%	12.75%	0.00%
Thief 11	80.75%	3.61%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	95.00%	4.25%	0.00%
Thief 12	85.50%	3.83%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	95.00%	4.25%	0.00%
Thief 13	95.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Thief 14	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Nothing truly revolutionary there, but, for completion's sake. Against an opponent with a bonus to their surprise roll, the best strategy, obviously, is to disallow them the roll.

Again - what the thief is is a manager of surprise, as the class has the ability to cancel out Hear Noise, which generates a surprise roll. 

I still think there's a way to fold up Hear Noise, Surprise, Move Silently, Hide in Shadows, and at least Find Traps into some master "Global Surprise" mechanic. I've touched on it one or two times, and the aforementioned Wandering Gamist did so as well.

Gonna let that sit and simmer. Right now I'm thinking about ACKS dungeonology.